WESTERN DIGITAL CORP (WDC) Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Revenue of $4.29B up 5% QoQ and 41% YoY; non-GAAP EPS $1.77 with non-GAAP gross margin 35.9%, below the prior quarter’s guided range due to NAND pricing pressure .
- HDD delivered record performance: nearline shipments reached 154 exabytes and average price per HDD rose to $172; HDD gross margin improved to 38.6% on strong UltraSMR adoption .
- Flash faced pricing headwinds and a “mid‑cycle pause”; management is proactively reducing supply, expecting underutilization charges of $20–$30M and moderating ASP pressure in Q3 .
- Q3 FY25 guidance: revenue $3.75–$3.95B, non-GAAP GM 31.5–33.5%, OpEx $700–$720M, EPS $0.90–$1.20; directional detail includes mid‑teens decline in Flash revenue and mid‑ to high‑single digit decline in HDD revenue with ~50bps HDD GM improvement .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- HDD outperformance: “data center revenue hitting an all‑time high” with record HDD gross margin, driven by strong nearline adoption and UltraSMR portfolio; nearline shipments at 154 exabytes and ASP at $172 .
- Product leadership: management highlighted “cutting‑edge UltraSMR technology” and ramp/qualification of 32TB SMR and 24/26TB CMR drives among hyperscalers, reinforcing TCO and capacity leadership .
- Cost discipline and cash generation: non-GAAP OpEx fell to $674M and operating cash flow reached $403M; free cash flow was $335M, reflecting tight spend and separation execution progress .
What Went Wrong
- Margin miss vs prior guide: non-GAAP GM of 35.9% fell below the Q1 guidance range (37–39%) on Flash pricing pressure and cost uptick; Flash GM declined 6.4ppt sequentially .
- NAND “mid‑cycle pause”: management cited oversupply and client inventory digestion; actions include lower utilization (underutilization $20–$30M in Q3 and higher in Q4) and supply reductions to stabilize pricing .
- Softer forward profile: Q3 revenue and EPS guides down sequentially; Flash revenue mid‑teens down, bits down mid‑single digits; HDD revenue mid‑ to high‑single digits down on lower volume despite expected ~50bps GM improvement .
Financial Results
Year-over-year (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024):
End‑Market Revenue Breakdown:
Segment Operations:
Key KPIs:
Guidance Changes
Q2 FY25 actual vs Q1 FY25 guidance (issued in Oct):
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our HDD business continues to perform well, propelled by our cutting‑edge UltraSMR technology… driving our HDD revenues to a 12‑quarter high with a record non‑GAAP gross margin.” — CEO David Goeckeler .
- “Gross margin for the fiscal second quarter was 35.9%, which was below our guidance range… Flash gross margin was 32.5%, down 6.4 percentage points sequentially due to pricing pressure late in the quarter.” — CFO Wissam Jabre .
- “We believe that we are currently in a mid‑cycle pause… Given stronger‑than‑anticipated pricing headwinds… we are proactively managing production levels.” — CEO David Goeckeler .
- “For Flash, we expect revenue to decline sequentially in the mid‑teens… and underutilization charges of $20 million to $30 million as we manage our supply.” — CFO Wissam Jabre .
- “In the fiscal third quarter, we anticipate continued momentum in data center… supply is now very tight… enabling better planning for product deliveries.” — CEO David Goeckeler .
Q&A Highlights
- HDD outlook and sequential decline: Management cited timing of deployments and tight supply; expect slight revenue decline in Q3 but continued margin improvement (~50bps) as ASP trends higher .
- NAND underutilization and pricing: Underutilization charges of $20–$30M in Q3 and higher in Q4; ASP headwinds expected to moderate next quarter; near‑term NAND cost up low single digits impacting GM .
- Enterprise SSD traction: Still tracking to targets; mix expected 15–20% of Flash shipments in FY25; demand robust across AI training infrastructure .
- Capacity/visibility: Build‑to‑order and 52‑week visibility reduce inventory risks; no immediate need to expand HDD footprint absent stronger long‑term signals .
- Product roadmap: 32TB SMR and 24/26TB CMR qualifications progressing; customers enthusiastic; UltraSMR extensible across future HAMR transition .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global Wall Street consensus for Q2 FY25 EPS and revenue was unavailable at time of analysis due to data access constraints. As a proxy, we compare actual results versus company guidance: revenue delivered within prior guided range; non‑GAAP EPS at the low end; non‑GAAP GM below guided range .
- Given Q3 guidance indicating lower revenue/EPS and specific underutilization charges, consensus estimates may need to reflect softer near‑term Flash pricing and utilization, with HDD margins trending higher on ASP/mix .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- HDD is the earnings engine near term: record nearline EB (154) and ASP ($172), with continued margin tailwinds from UltraSMR and higher density drive mix; Q3 HDD GM guided ~50bps higher despite lower volume .
- Flash faces a tactical reset: pricing headwinds and client inventory digestion drive a mid‑cycle pause; supply reductions and underutilization charges ($20–$30M in Q3) aim to stabilize pricing; ASP headwinds expected to moderate next quarter .
- Q2 result vs prior guidance: revenue and EPS within guidance, but non‑GAAP GM miss underscores NAND pricing/cost pressure; OpEx discipline a positive offset .
- Q3 guide reset: revenue $3.75–$3.95B, EPS $0.90–$1.20, GM 31.5–33.5%; Flash down mid‑teens; HDD down mid‑ to high‑single digits but margin up—set expectations accordingly for mix and profitability drivers .
- Cash and balance sheet: $403M operating cash flow and $335M FCF; cash and equivalents $2.291B; liquidity ~$4.5B including undrawn revolver—supportive for separation and tactical NAND supply actions .
- Separation milestone: financing arranged; separation completed subsequently (Feb 24, 2025) with new leadership structure—monitor disclosure cadence and segment‑specific guidance going forward .
- Trading implications: Near‑term narrative centers on HDD strength vs Flash softness; watch for pricing stabilization signals in NAND, underutilization progression, and qualification/ramp updates for 32TB UltraSMR and enterprise SSDs—key catalysts for margin/earnings trajectory .
Additional Notes
- Balance sheet snapshots: cash and equivalents $2.291B; gross debt $7.4B; total assets $25.456B as of Dec 27, 2024 .
- Non-GAAP adjustments included stock-based compensation, business separation costs, litigation, and other items; reconciliations provided in the 8‑K .
- Investor day references and timing were discussed on the call; follow-ups may refine segment‑level outlook post separation .